Co-Written by: Grayson Obey & Spencer Wood
Celtics and Heat Meet Again
This will be the third iteration of a Celtics – Heat matchup in the Eastern Conference Finals in the past four years, with the Heat winning in 6 in 2020 in the bubble, and Boston taking last year’s series in 7. The Celtics edged out the Heat in the regular season this year, 3-1. It’s tough to gauge the matchup based on the regular season series, with both teams missing key players for games, (Jimmy Butler – 2, Jaylen Brown – 1) and with their last game was played in January, prior to the trade deadline shakeup.
Moving forward, the health of Jimmy Butler’s ankle will be critical for the Heat against the Celtics. Butler, who turned his ankle late in the 4th quarter of their Game 1 win, was noticeably affected throughout the last series. The Heat will have had 5 days off at the start of the series, which will aid in his recovery. Additionally, something to watch will be the availability of Tyler Herro, who went down with a broken hand on April 16, and is expected to miss at least 6 weeks. If this series goes to 6 games, there will be a real possibility of the Heat’s 3rd leading scorer making a return. In the meantime, Miami will look to fill his offensive pop and 3 point scoring with Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Duncan Robinson. After an up and down regular season, Robinson has found his 3 point shot again, shooting it at 42.7% on 5.5 shots behind the arc in the playoffs. His floor-spacing presence, as well as the addition of savvy veteran Kevin Love, and the emergence of Caleb Martin add a new wrinkle to the Heat team that the Celtics narrowly escaped last year.
For Boston, the outcome of the series will be decided by what version of the star duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown we see. The duo struggled at times during the second round, and the Celtics need the version of Jayson Tatum they saw in game 7. Tatum’s ability to knock down his pull up shots and find his shot early alleviates the pressure on Jaylen Brown to score, keeping their offense more dynamic and free-flowing. The shrinking of the rotation to 7 or 8 players will be an interesting aspect of the Celtics conference final run to watch. This has most significantly affected Grant Williams, who has seen a significant reduction in minutes despite being a large part of last year’s Finals run. Al Horford has continued to be a significant difference maker for the Celtics, but hasn’t shot the ball as effectively, only putting up 6.7 points on 30% from 3. Marcus Smart has continued a successful playoff run, increasing his regular season ppg from 11.5 to 16.6 on increased efficiency and attempts. His play along with that of their other guards, 6th Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White, will be an area Boston will hope to have an advantage.
Prediction:
“Playoff Jimmy” and Bam’s production against the Celtics star tandem of Tatum and Brown should give us a long series of great basketball. I think both teams will need to win along the margins in order to get it done, and I think Miami has the team to take down Boston. Miami will have to continue to knock down shots behind the arc, and find ways to stagnate the Celtics offense with their wing depth.
Miami in 7. – GO
Lakers and Nuggets Face Off in Bubble Rematch
Rematch. The 2020 Lakers would take down the Denver Nuggets in 5 games after incredible play by LeBron James and Anthony Davis (who even hit a game winner in Game 2). Denver hasn’t forgotten this, especially after overcoming multiple 3-1 leads to make the conference finals that postseason. The teams split their series 2-2 in the regular season, but that was with a completely different Lakers team prior to the trade deadline. Both teams seem to be entering in full health, and we’re sure to be in for a show.
What will be vital in this series is for Los Angeles to either attack Nikola Jokic’s passing game, or his scoring. When allowed to conduct the offense, Jokic and Denver had created one of the most lethal offenses in the league during the regular season, and Los Angeles will be put in charge of disrupting that flow. We can expect the Lakers to throw Jokic many different looks over the course of the series to see how they can shut down some small part of his offensive output. On the other end of the floor, Denver has excellent wing defenders that can harass most opposing positions, however, their star center will likely be put to the test by Anthony Davis early in the series. Denver’s defense will have to be on top of preventing Anthony Davis to roam near the basket and to limit fouls on their star early in the game, which has been a tall order for every team this postseason.
While Denver is able to play both ways with incredible proficiency, so can the Lakers. We can expect to see much of what had made the Lakers great since the trade deadline, and that has been their ability to defend at a high level, and to create physical mismatches for great post looks and trips to the line (while also shooting a good clip). Their solid rotation of role-players has allowed for new opportunities for LeBron James to play more of a traditional forward role, which has lead to many dangerous switches for opponents. While both teams have depth, Denver seemingly has the upper hand in just how deep they can go, but L.A. is home to several specialists that excel higher at what they do. We think that if the Lakers (who are well-equipped defensively) can hinder Jokic’s passing game, they can create stagnation for the Nuggets and punish them on the other end for it, just as they’ve done to team facilitators all postseason.
Prediction:
Los Angeles has been on a trajectory unlike any other team since the playoffs began, and they have looked great at almost every turn. Denver has so far shocked many as well due to their incredible play, even though they entered the postseason as the #1 seed. However, one side has one of the best 1-2 punches in the league with LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and with their versatile supporting cast, we ultimately believe they’ll continue to shock the world against an incredibly tough Denver team.
For the 11th time in his career and for the potential to raise an 18th banner, we have LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers in 7 to make the NBA Finals. – SW
The Ball-Father 