Co-Written By: Spencer Wood and Grayson Obey
Nuggets Sweep Lakers for First Franchise Finals Bid
So… we got this wrong. It was a long series for the Los Angeles Lakers, whose defensive proficiency was erased by the high-powered two-man game of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, as well as the Nuggets’ pristine system of play. After failing to keep either a lead or defensive pressure in each game, the Lakers were defeated by a combined 26 points across all 4 games. Such a mark will be devastating for Lakers fans, who could have joined their team in the finals if just a few extra shots had gone their way. The series had told us much about both teams and how one will navigate their NBA Finals berth, and how one will work through a complex offseason filled with questions.
Starting with Los Angeles, a mixed-bag of looks was indeed put in place to try and eliminate Nikola Jokic’s passing game, and to an extent, it had worked beautifully to their advantage – until, well, it went horribly wrong. Offensive lulls, superstar performances from Denver, and defensive breakdowns of key starters were just some of the Lakers’ hills to climb over the course of the 4-game series (and not to mention some of the circus shots that had shocked everyone). Their inability to shut down Jokic had cut them even more deeply when they had faced similar surgical play by Jamal Murray, and the extra defensive attention given to Jokic had opened up to many looks for the remainder of Denver’s cast. The Lakers head home after an impressive showing in the playoffs after starting the season 2-10, but they do so in disappointing fashion after getting swept and being unable to showcase their defensive pedigree.
As for Denver, they had shined with their deep roster and excellent ball movement. Several of the crippling blows to the Lakers had come due to a more obvious source, and that was the unstoppable play of Nikola Jokic. The best example of this came early in Game 2, where Jokic put up a jaw-dropping 34 points, 21 rebounds, 14 assists, and 2 blocks. His ability to take advantage of the extra defensive pressure he received resulted in many opportunities for his supporting cast as well (seen exceptionally well in Murray’s 32.5 PPG in the series). What really encapsulates his performance in this series are the three triple-double performances he had in the sweep of Los Angeles. Combined with his incredible efficiency, there wasn’t an answer for him defensively, as each team he has faced has learned the hard way.
Denver Nuggets’ Stars of the Series
Nikola Jokic (27.8 PTS, 14.5 REB, 11.7 AST)
Jamal Murray (32.5 PTS, 6.3 REB, 5.3 AST, 2.8 STL)
The Denver Nuggets are advancing to their first NBA Finals appearance in franchise history, and they’re doing so on the back of two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the potent Denver offense. The streets of Denver are engulfed with an excitement the city has never known before, and as they march forward as the heavy favorite to battle Miami, those same streets may soon be host to the Larry O’Brien trophy and 1st-time champions riding through the parade crowd.
Image from San Diego Union-Tribune
8-Seed Heat Avoid Heartbreak, Make Finals Return
Did anyone see this coming? We did. Did we anticipate it happening this way, with Miami taking a commanding 3-0 lead, followed by an incredible span of 3 wins by Boston to take it to 7? Absolutely not! But after a hard fought series, the Miami Heat are headed to their first NBA Finals since 2020 to face the Finals newcomer Denver Nuggets. In case you missed it, we’ll break down how Miami got here, including what we saw coming and what surprised us along the way.
The Eastern Conference Finals rematch was dialed up to start, with both teams playing aggressively to outwill their foe and set the tone early in the series. In Game 1, Boston crashed the boards early, looking to out-physical the scrappy Heat, and looked to bother Bam Adebayo, making him work for every shot attempt while also feeding the ball to the paint early to challenge him defensively. But after the start of the 3rd quarter, Miami showed the world why they shouldn’t be sleeping on this sneaky Heat team. They scored 46 points in the quarter, with 13 from Max Strus, 12 from Jimmy Butler, and 9 from Bam Adebayo, creating an insurmountable lead to steal Game 1 of the series in The Garden. In Game 2, the scrappy Heat continued their late game magic. After trailing most of the second half, Miami took the lead on two big buckets from Jimmy Butler late in the 4th, giving them the surprise 2-0 lead in the series. Bam took control of the paint in this one, with 22 points and 17 rebounds, along with 9 assists, with 25 points from Caleb Martin off the bench to help bring this one home. The Heat kept the momentum rolling as they returned home, and buried the Celtics early in Game 3, led by their improbable cast of undrafted players. Gabe Vincent led the charge with a career-high in points, 29, on 11-14 from the field and 6-9 from three with just a single freethrow. Miami also got a pop from Duncan Robinson off the bench, who scored 22, with 5-7 coming from three. From here, Boston looked to be in trouble, with the frustration and defeat clearly showing on the faces of the Celtics bench.
Boston was down, but not out. And thanks to the veteran leadership of Al Horford, and a surprise Topgolf trip in Miami, Boston finally found their groove in Game 4. The Celtics came out with the intensity of a team with their back against the wall, ready to claw their way back into the series. They hit shots and played with fluidity, and we finally saw both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown play with the prowess and efficiency that was severely lacking in the first 3 games of the series. Things compounded for Miami as their hero of Game 3, Gabe Vincent, rolled his ankle late in the game, forcing him to miss the next game. The Miami Heat desperately missed Vincent in Game 5, putting up their lowest points total of the conference finals. Boston kept rolling, with another solid performance from Tatum and Brown, and also took advantage of the Heat’s depleted guards, with Marcus Smart and Derrick White going for 23 and 24 points apiece. In Game 6, after a back and forth battle of the 4th, the Celtics prevailed again. Jimmy Butler willed his team late, and, driving to the corner and forcing Al Horford to foul on a hero shot, sent Miami to the free throw line to take 3 free throw attempts down 2. Butler drained all 3, with just 3 seconds left. However, Miami failed to close out the game and the series on a missed box-out. The play drawn up for Smart to take the game winning 3 was well defended, but the Heat lost track of Boston on the boards. Derrick White cut, and tapped in a miss as time expired to force one final game for the East back in Boston.
Despite the momentum roaring in Boston’s favor to do the improbable, and having to face the defending East-Champs in The Garden, Miami’s confidence never wavered. Tatum injured his ankle early in Game 7, and never looked the same afterwards. Jaylen Brown gave away a career high 8 turnovers, and Miami capitalized, with Caleb Martin knocking down clutch buckets when the Heat needed them the most and Jimmy Buckets again performing in his true playoff fashion.
Going into the series, we anticipated with the absence of Tyler Herro, Miami needed their 3 point shooting to be lights out, and that it was. The punch of their outside shooting was simply too much for Boston:
| Player | 3 Point % | 3P% Change from Reg. Season | Attempts |
| Gabe Vincent | 51.6 | +18.2% | 31 |
| Caleb Martin | 48.9 | +13.3% | 45 |
| Duncan Robinson | 48.4 | +15.6% | 31 |
| Max Strus | 34.2 | -0.8% | 38 |
While Herro did not return in the Conference Finals, he was cleared for basketball activity late in the series, and by all reports is likely to return early in the NBA Finals Series after suffering a broken hand in the 1st Round of the Playoffs. Additionally, we noted how the midseason addition of Kevin Love and expanded role of Caleb Martin would be key aspects to watch in this series rematch. While Love was hindered by a leg injury, severely limiting his minutes and impact, Caleb Martin looked like an emerging star, and was vital to Miami’s series win. Martin saw significant increases in his minutes (up from 28.3 MPG in the semi-finals to 35.6) and efficiency (increasing his splits from the semis by nearly 15/13/13). Miami leaned on his scoring when Bam and Jimmy couldn’t get shots to fall, and he answered. His 26 points and 10 rebounds were key to clinching Game 7.
The difference between the Celtics team we saw between Game 1-3 and 4-6 was astonishing. As predicted, Miami was able to successfully stagnate Boston, and while Boston played more free as the series unfolded, it was thwarted largely due to the inefficiency of the Tatum and Brown duo. Together, they shot 18 for 90 from 3 on the series, and turned the ball over 51 times. It was Jaylen Brown’s lowest FG% in a playoff series since 2017, and worst 3P% and highest turnover totals in his playoffs career. Tatum has also not shot the 3 worse in a series since the Celtics 2019 loss to the Bucks. Boston has big decisions looming ahead, with Jaylen Brown now eligible for a 5 year, $295 million super max contract this summer, to pair with Jayson Tatum’s 5 year, $318 million supermax that will be on the table next offseason. Will Boston put out big money to lock down this duo for the foreseeable future, or possibly look to trade Brown and retool? This will undoubtedly be one of the most heavily discussed topics of the NBA offseason. Tatum has already stated his opinion on the matter, saying it’s “extremely important” that Boston retain Brown. Another significant part of the rotation to watch is what Boston chooses to do with pending free-agent Grant Williams, who will likely garner significant salary in a weaker free-agency class, and will have a decision to make on Payton Pritchard’s team-option, after he only played spot minutes throughout the playoffs.
Miami Heat Stars of the Series
Caleb Martin (19.3 PTS, 6.4 REB, 1.7 AST, 60/49/88 shooting splits)
Jimmy Butler (24.7 PTS, 7.6 REB, 6.1 AST)
Gabe Vincent (15.2 PTS, 48/51/94 shooting splits)
Miami has their flight to Denver booked, and will look to battle the well-rested Nuggets. Can they keep shooting the 3 point ball lights out? And how will the reemergence of Tyler Herro affect the series? Can the Heat find a stop to Nikola Jokic? Stay tuned.
NBA Finals Prediction:
After much thought back-and-forth, calculating tangibles and speculating at intangibles, the simple answer here is that the Miami Heat are going into this series as huge underdogs again at +350 odds. The Denver Nuggets are a loaded roster with a high-powered and high-velocity offense that has proven lethal to other teams they have faced in the postseason, and Miami will be hard-pressed to keep up. But yet, there’s something unspoken about the Miami Heat, something that nobody has been able to truly encapsulate in their inspections of the team, and it is this overbearing feeling that this team will shatter our expectations of them. They have done it time and time and time again, and there is no reason to believe they will tone it down on basketball’s biggest stage. However, we have to make our decisions on what is known, and that is the massive discrepancy in roster strength, at least on paper. Miami is well-built, tough, coached by one of the best in the league, and can exploit any team on both ends of the court. Denver however, boats many of these same advantaged, and excels Miami in some departments.
It breaks our hearts to say it, but we have the Denver Nuggets taking home their first championship in 6 games.
Spencer Wood 